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Jul 07

HURRICANE BERYL ALERT STATEMENT

HURRICANE BERYL ALERT STATEMENT

ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES

5:15 AM ECT SAT, JUL 7, 2018

THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

AT 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.1 NORTH, LONGITUDE 49.8 WEST.

BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH (22 KM/H). A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF BERYL WILL APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE WEEKEND AND CROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 75 MPH (120 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE HURRICANE, SHORT-TERM CHANGES IN INTENSITY, UP OR DOWN, COULD OCCUR OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO, BUT BERYL IS FORECAST TO BE NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE LESSER ANTILLES. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ONCE BERYL REACHES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON MONDAY, BUT THE SYSTEM MAY NOT DEGENERATE INTO AN OPEN TROUGH UNTIL IT REACHES THE VICINITY OF HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ON TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

BERYL IS A SMALL HURRICANE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES (20 KM) FROM THE CENTER AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM).

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 995 MB (29.39 INCHES).

BASED ON THE LATEST TRACK, BERYL IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST TO WEST NORTHWESTERLY TRACK WHICH COULD RESULT IN THE STORM PASSING SOUTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST TRACK, THERE IS STILL A POSSIBILITY THAT BERYL COULD TRACK CLOSER TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND IN THAT CASE WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

RESIDENCE OF THE LEEWARDS AND BVI SHOULD THEREFORE, REMAIN STRONGLY VIGILANT AND CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BERYL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. WE AT THE ST.KITTS MET SERVICES WILL CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF HURRICANE BERYL UNTIL IT EXTSIS OUR AND PROVIDE TIMELY ACCURATE UPDATES.

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