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Jul 06

HURRICANE BERYL ALERT STATEMENT


ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES
12 PM ECT FRI, JUL 6, 2018

THIS IS FOR THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS

AT 11:00 AM ECT (1500 UTC), THE EYE OF HURRICANE BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.7 NORTH, LONGITUDE 46.5 WEST OR 1859KM OR 1004NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ST. KITTS AND NEVIS.

BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 15 MPH (24 KM/H). A FASTER WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER THE WEEKEND AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ON THE FORECAST TRACK, THE CENTER OF BERYL WILL APPROACH THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE WEEKEND AND CROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 80 MPH (130 KM/H) WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND BERYL IS EXPECTED TO STILL BE A HURRICANE WHEN IT REACHES THE LESSER ANTILLES LATE SUNDAY OR MONDAY. WEAKENING IS EXPECTED ONCE BERYL REACHES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ON MONDAY, BUT THE SYSTEM MAY NOT DEGENERATE INTO AN OPEN TROUGH UNTIL IT REACHES THE VICINITY OF HISPANIOLA AND THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.

BERYL IS A COMPACT HURRICANE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES (20 KM) FROM THE CENTER, AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES (55 KM). THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 994 MB (29.36 INCHES).

BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK, BERYL IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY PATH AND BE IN THE VICINITY OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARDS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A HURRICANE. WHILE THIS SUGGEST THAT HURRICANE AND STORM CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE LEEWARDS, THERE REMAINS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WHICH OF THE ISLANDS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED AND IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT A TRACK CLOSER TO THE LEEWARDS COULD BE REALIZED BRINGING STORM CONDITIONS OVER THESE ISLANDS; HENCE, WATCHES OR WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT 24HOURS FOR PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARDS.

RESIDENTS OF THE LEEWARDS AND BVI ARE THEREFORE STRONGLY ADVISED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BERYL AND FUTURE BULLETINS FROM THE MET OFFICE FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

FORECASTER
LENARD JOSIAH

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